Progressive (PGR)

• Market cap: $141B
• 1 day: 0.11%
• 5 days: -5.41%
• 1 month: -6.63%
• 3 months: -7.43%
• 6 months: 13.81%
• Year to date: 48.47%
• 1 year: 54.26%
• 5 years: 234.41%
• 10 years: 797.42%
• Sector: Financials
• Industry: Fire, Marine & Casualty Insurance

About: Progressive underwrites private and commercial auto insurance and specialty lines; it has almost 20 million personal auto policies in force and is one of the largest auto insurers in the United States. Progressive markets its policies through independent insurance agencies in the US and Canada and directly via the internet and telephone. Its premiums are split roughly equally between the agent and the direct channel. The company also offers commercial auto policies and entered homeowners insurance through an acquisition in 2015.

Employees: 61,400

Fund manager confidence

Based on 2024 Q3 regulatory filings by fund managers ($100M+ AUM)

125% more first-time investments, than exits

New positions opened: 223 | Existing positions closed: 99

20% more funds holding in top 10

Funds holding in top 10: 64 [Q2] → 77 (+13) [Q3]

19% more call options, than puts

Call options by funds: $723M | Put options by funds: $609M

18% more capital invested

Capital invested by funds: $105B [Q2] → $124B (+$18.7B) [Q3]

13% more repeat investments, than reductions

Existing positions increased: 635 | Existing positions reduced: 560

8% more funds holding

Funds holding: 1,499 [Q2] → 1,623 (+124) [Q3]

2.94% less ownership

Funds ownership: 86.34% [Q2] → 83.4% (-2.94%) [Q3]

Research analyst outlook

10 Wall Street Analysts provided 1 year price targets over the past 3 months

• Low target: $237 1% downside
• Avg. target: $285 19% upside
• High target: $335 40% upside

10 analyst ratings

• positive: 8 80%
• neutral: 2 20%
• negative: 0 0%

Wells Fargo Elyse Greenspan 57% 1-year accuracy 52 / 91 met price target	26% upside $302	Overweight Maintained	16 Dec 2024
BMO Capital Michael Zaremski 64% 1-year accuracy 16 / 25 met price target	11% upside $267	Outperform Maintained	16 Dec 2024
Morgan Stanley Bob Huang 53% 1-year accuracy 8 / 15 met price target	29% upside $310	Overweight Maintained	13 Dec 2024
B of A Securities Joshua Shanker 44% 1-year accuracy 24 / 54 met price target	40% upside $335	Buy Maintained	18 Nov 2024
TD Cowen Andrew Kligerman 62% 1-year accuracy 8 / 13 met price target	1% downside $237	Hold Maintained	8 Nov 2024