Progressive (PGR)

• Market cap: $156B
• 1 day: -0.55%
• 5 days: 1.88%
• 1 month: 10.45%
• 3 months: 1.04%
• 6 months: 12.17%
• Year to date: 10.61%
• 1 year: 39.92%
• 5 years: 226.77%
• 10 years: 902.22%
• Sector: Financials
• Industry: Fire, Marine & Casualty Insurance

About: Progressive underwrites private and commercial auto insurance and specialty lines; it has almost 20 million personal auto policies in force and is one of the largest auto insurers in the United States. Progressive markets its policies through independent insurance agencies in the US and Canada and directly via the internet and telephone. Its premiums are split roughly equally between the agent and the direct channel. The company also offers commercial auto policies and entered homeowners insurance through an acquisition in 2015.

Employees: 61,400

Fund manager confidence

Based on 2024 Q4 regulatory filings by fund managers ($100M+ AUM)

108% more first-time investments, than exits

New positions opened: 221 | Existing positions closed: 106

14% more call options, than puts

Call options by funds: $574M | Put options by funds: $503M

13% more repeat investments, than reductions

Existing positions increased: 655 | Existing positions reduced: 578

2% more funds holding

Funds holding: 1,632 [Q3] → 1,669 (+37) [Q4]

0.29% less ownership

Funds ownership: 85.73% [Q3] → 85.44% (-0.29%) [Q4]

6% less capital invested

Capital invested by funds: $127B [Q3] → $120B (-$7.34B) [Q4]

12% less funds holding in top 10

Funds holding in top 10: 78 [Q3] → 69 (-9) [Q4]

Research analyst outlook

7 Wall Street Analysts provided 1 year price targets over the past 3 months

• Low target: $256 4% downside
• Avg. target: $287 8% upside
• High target: $317 19% upside

7 analyst ratings

• positive: 6 86%
• neutral: 1 14%
• negative: 0 0%

Wells Fargo Elyse Greenspan 68% 1-year accuracy 77 / 114 met price target	19% upside $317	Overweight Maintained	20 Feb 2025
Barclays Alex Scott 48% 1-year accuracy 37 / 77 met price target	1% downside $264	Equal-Weight Maintained	18 Feb 2025
Morgan Stanley Bob Huang 72% 1-year accuracy 13 / 18 met price target	15% upside $307	Overweight Maintained	31 Jan 2025
Keefe, Bruyette & Woods Meyer Shields 62% 1-year accuracy 69 / 112 met price target	10% upside $294	Outperform Maintained	10 Jan 2025
JP Morgan Jimmy Bhullar 66% 1-year accuracy 23 / 35 met price target	4% downside $256	Overweight Maintained	3 Jan 2025