Progressive (PGR)

• Market cap: $143B
• 1 day: -0.76%
• 5 days: 5.78%
• 1 month: -1.56%
• 3 months: -3.05%
• 6 months: 10.09%
• Year to date: 1.26%
• 1 year: 43.43%
• 5 years: 219.37%
• 10 years: 825.84%
• Sector: Financials
• Industry: Fire, Marine & Casualty Insurance

About: Progressive underwrites private and commercial auto insurance and specialty lines; it has almost 20 million personal auto policies in force and is one of the largest auto insurers in the United States. Progressive markets its policies through independent insurance agencies in the US and Canada and directly via the internet and telephone. Its premiums are split roughly equally between the agent and the direct channel. The company also offers commercial auto policies and entered homeowners insurance through an acquisition in 2015.

Employees: 61,400

Fund manager confidence

Based on 2024 Q3 regulatory filings by fund managers ($100M+ AUM)

187% more first-time investments, than exits

New positions opened: 224 | Existing positions closed: 78

22% more call options, than puts

Call options by funds: $769M | Put options by funds: $628M

22% more funds holding in top 10

Funds holding in top 10: 64 [Q2] → 78 (+14) [Q3]

18% more capital invested

Capital invested by funds: $108B [Q2] → $127B (+$19.4B) [Q3]

13% more repeat investments, than reductions

Existing positions increased: 635 | Existing positions reduced: 562

8% more funds holding

Funds holding: 1,500 [Q2] → 1,627 (+127) [Q3]

2.93% less ownership

Funds ownership: 88.65% [Q2] → 85.73% (-2.93%) [Q3]

Research analyst outlook

10 Wall Street Analysts provided 1 year price targets over the past 3 months

• Low target: $237 3% downside
• Avg. target: $285 17% upside
• High target: $335 37% upside

10 analyst ratings

• positive: 8 80%
• neutral: 2 20%
• negative: 0 0%

Keefe, Bruyette & Woods Meyer Shields 64% 1-year accuracy 68 / 106 met price target	21% upside $294	Outperform Maintained	10 Jan 2025
Barclays Alex Scott 56% 1-year accuracy 38 / 68 met price target	7% upside $261	Equal-Weight Maintained	6 Jan 2025
JP Morgan Jimmy Bhullar 51% 1-year accuracy 19 / 37 met price target	5% upside $256	Overweight Maintained	3 Jan 2025
Raymond James C. Gregory Peters 83% 1-year accuracy 34 / 41 met price target	25% upside $305	Outperform Upgraded	26 Dec 2024
Wells Fargo Elyse Greenspan 67% 1-year accuracy 70 / 105 met price target	24% upside $302	Overweight Maintained	16 Dec 2024