Schwab Long-Term US Treasury ETF
SCHQ
Market cap $904M

31.61 USD

-0.26

0.82%

At close Apr 17, 4:00 PM EDT

1 day

-0.82%

5 days

1.77%

1 month

-2.95%

3 months

0.73%

6 months

-5.87%

Year to date

0.32%

1 year

-1.00%

5 years

-45.68%

10 years

-36.03%

0

Funds holding %

of 7,407 funds

–

Analysts bullish %

Fund manager confidence

Based on 2024 Q4 regulatory disclosures by fund managers ($100M+ AUM)

50% more funds holding in top 10

Funds holding in top 10: 2 [Q3] → 3 (+1) [Q4]

0% more first-time investments, than exits

New positions opened: 21 | Existing positions closed: 21

3% less funds holding

Funds holding: 107 [Q3] → 104 (-3) [Q4]

7.92% less ownership

Funds ownership: 56.68% [Q3] → 48.76% (-7.92%) [Q4]

32% less capital invested

Capital invested by funds: $511M [Q3] → $349M (-$162M) [Q4]

35% less repeat investments, than reductions

Existing positions increased: 28 | Existing positions reduced: 43

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Research analyst outlook

We haven’t received any recent analyst ratings for SCHQ.

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Financial journalist opinion

What's Going On With Treasury Rates?

We think the Fed has time to assess the impact of tariffs, and we expect it to wait to cut rates until the data show that tariffs are impacting the real economy. So far, there are no signs of recession in the hard data. The tariff pause offers the possibility to avoid worst-case economic scenarios before the damage is crystalized. We believe technical factors will continue to drive market dislocations in spreads and sectors, and that active managers can navigate this more effectively.

What's Going On With Treasury Rates?

SCHQ: Limited Upside Amid Rising US Debt, Slower Rate Cuts

SCHQ's fund price has stabilized but remains rangebound due to the Federal Reserve's cautious rate cut approach amidst high U.S. government debt. The Federal Reserve's slow rate cuts, driven by high U.S. debt and potential inflation, limit SCHQ's capital appreciation prospects. Rising U.S. government debt and potential increased spending under the new administration will likely keep interest rates elevated.

SCHQ: Limited Upside Amid Rising US Debt, Slower Rate Cuts

Rates Spark: ECB Presser Bear-Flattened The Curve

The ECB cut rates by 25bp as widely anticipated, but a slightly hawkish tilt bear flattened the EUR curve, which in our view remains priced aggressively. In the US, as the markets head towards the Fed's first rate cut, the probability of a larger cut rose slightly on Thursday.

Rates Spark: ECB Presser Bear-Flattened The Curve

Going Longer: Deeper Rotation Into Duration?

Investors took refuge in short-term Treasury bonds throughout 2023, where they reaped the rewards of higher-yielding money markets. Meanwhile, longer duration Treasuries have been mired in a bear market since 2020 but could finally start to see a reversal of fortune.

Going Longer: Deeper Rotation Into Duration?

TLT And SCHQ - Potential Confirmation And Low-Cost Play

Recent economic data supports a bullish view of long-term US bonds. The structural argument for high debt and deficit sustainability driving thesis. Introduction of a low-cost alternative to TLT - Schwab Long-Term U.S. Treasury ETF.

Estimating The Impact Of Lower Rates On Bond Fund Dividends

It generally takes a few years for changes in Federal Reserve rates to fully impact bond fund dividends. Bond funds are still benefitting from prior rate hikes. Perhaps by enough to cancel out any future rate cuts. By my estimations, and under current Fed guidance, most bond funds would only start to see declining dividends in 2025, at the earliest.

A fiscal cliff is coming: avoid the SCHQ and TLT ETFs

The Schwab Long-Term US Treasury (SCHQ) and the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond (TLT) ETFs have jumped sharply in the past few months as investors cheer the change of tune from the Federal Reserve.

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